After I posted my blog yesterday I read an article in the NY Times that took the same info and had the opposite spin. They said prices were down in 9 of 20 markets. It amazes me how being down in 9 out of 20 markets is the same as being up in 11 out of twenty markets. I am surprised that they did not find one market that was flat out of 20 and call prices flat for the whole country.
Happy New Year again!!! I hope you and yours have a great 2010.
Most of the economic indicators are positive.Home prices rose again for the fifth straight
month (in 11 out of 20 markets).Inventories
of existing homes are going down.The
Home Buyer’s Tax Credit has been extended and expanded to other than first time
home buyers.
Mortgage rates are as low as the will ever go and are being
held down by the Fed.That will not
last.More later on that!
Housing prices, in most cases, have already bottomed out and
are starting back up.If you try to
judge (guess) the absolute bottom you will be absolutely wrong.
If you buy now and miss the bottom by a few percentage
points you will make up for it by your lower mortgage rate.If you accidentally hit the bottom right on
the money you will make out even better.
The Fed is spending 1.2 Trillion dollars buying up Mortgage
Backed Securities.That money is almost
spent.When its gone rates will jump
back to where the market conditions dictate.My guess is over 6% by early spring.
Remember, markets anticipate trends and smart money knows to
jump in early.As an example:have you noticed all the new construction in
Avalon?There are three new houses on my
block alone.
This is not necessarily a great time to sell, BUT it is
definitely THE great time to BUY.
290 79th Street, Unit 13, Avalon, New Jersey The perfect location for this 3 bedroom, two and a half bath townhomeinfabulous Avalon, NJ. Close to everything: The Windrift, The Golden Inn, the Concord Cafe, parks, ballfields, the beach and the bay. Most condos in this complaex are flat units. This is a roomy two stories townhome with very large bedrooms. Schedule an appointment to see this condo with me and soon you will be enjoying the nightlife, fishing, boating, crabbing and strolls on the beautiful beaches of Avalon. See the URL below.
An important indicator of a real estate recovery is an upward trend of under contract or pending sales. I can remember watching the pending sales hover around 77 units for months on end during the winter and spring of 2008. Then in the fall of 2008 there was a jump to around 90 units under contract that was sustained for months.
Over the past few weeks that number has stayed around 105 to 108. There are dramatic increases. I track six areas every day. Those are Avalon and Avalon Manor, StoneHarbor and Stone Harbor Manor, Wildwood Crest and North Wildwood.
This little microcosm is showing us a positive trend in seashore real estate. Couple this trend with the increased telephone and internet traffic and I am optimistic about what this summer season will bring.
Today the pending number is 116. For this week's sales and solds activity for Avalon and Stone Harbor click here.
Sincerely, Ralph
July 15 Update
Additionally, I have enclosed the market update for 7/3 through today. We continue to see increased activity with: properties listed, sold and those going under contract. One day last week we had a flashback to 2003 with five solds in one day in Avalon! You will notice a jump in activity from about a dozen properties to close to 40 properties on the mls since I began sending these updates out a month ago.
MARKET UPDATE
Please don't hesitate to contact me with any real estate questions
July 31 Update
Good Afternoon,
I'm not a back to back e-mail kind of guy - unless I think it's important. I thought it was interesting and exciting that over $18 million worth of property was put under contract today in the areas I track.
Enjoy the weekend.
Sincerely,
Ralph
October 6 Update
Good Afternoon,
I have been sending a weekly update of the Avalon market with comments about the Real Estate market for the past month or so. Just found out there was a gliche in the e-mail program and they probably were never delivered to you. I may send them to you spaced out over a short time to catch you up.
This week it was reported there was a little hiccup in the sale of existing home sales. After four months of increased sale they dropped 2.7 % for August.
I personally think the drop was predictable. August is back to school, back to sport camps and a very hectic time in the lives of American families.
Also, with a 45 day lead time recommended for a mortgage approval, it was probably too late for those trying to take advantage of the first time home buyers tax credit to get their mortgage approval in time.
Sales will slow again after the tax credit will expire in November.
In closing, you can take it to the bank that the $8,000 first time home buyer's credit will be extending for another six months with few, if any, changes.
Exit 13 Blog